Expected Reaction

On Sunday, March 7th, I wrote how I expected the BTC market to react to the 1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill getting passed. In summary:

I think Bitcoin will reach an all-time high (ATH) in the next 5-14 days because of the stimulus bill.

Result

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) right inside the 5-14 day window.

Six days from the date of the original post, Saturday, March 13th, around 2:10AM PST, Bitcoin broke through it’s previous ATH of $58,330.

BTC breaking ATH of $58,330

Later on in the day around 12:40PM PST, it led to a new ATH of $61,782.76.

BTC setting new ATH of $61,782.76

The Trade

In the original post I laid out three reasons for making that belief public. The third was:

This promotes a culture of accountability. (not being Jim Cramer, making predictions he never verifies)

On top of that, I don’t want to just make price predictions and verify them; I need to put money where my mouth is. (putting skin in the game can change behavior)

Monday

So, the next day, Monday morning at 7:12AM, I bought 20 BTC at an average price of $50,804.90 per coin. ($1,016,098.00 in total)

Note that this exchange uses an international date format, so 08/03/2021 is March 8th, 2021 + timezone is incorrect. BTC purchase

This was by far my largest asset purchase to date. I had extremely high conviction, so I actually was able to sleep well at night.

As soon as I made the purchase, BTC continually rose in price over three days.

rise

During some of the pullbacks, I added to the position, eventually making the total position 30 BTC (~1.5M USD).

Wednesday

On Wednesday, the House voted to approve the stimulus bill. However, it wasn’t going to be signed by the President until that Friday.

At that point, BTC was near the previous ATH of ~$58,330. I sold 20 of the 30 BTC with the intention to re-buy in a few days.

The final three columns (left-to-right) are: buy price, exit price, profit in BTC. sale That sale locked in a 1.856 BTC ($103,925.98) profit just two days after the purchase.

Thursday + Friday

Thursday night and Friday morning, I begin buying again.

second purchase

Eventually, the total gets back to 30 BTC.

Saturday Morning

As mentioned at the top of this post, at around 2AM PST, BTC shoots past the ATH.

At 5:13AM, a friend on the east coast wakes me up with a text about the price change. I then sell 25/30 BTC:

final sales

In Total

The two trades above + minor ones through the week resulted in a 3.676 BTC realized profit in six days.

summary

At time of writing, I still have 5 of the original 30 BTC still open with an unrealized gain of 0.349 BTC.

In total, that’s a 4.025 BTC (or $246,330) profit in six days.

This is my best trade yet. My next step is to build resilience to not trade until I have that very high level of conviction again.