I think Bitcoin will reach an all-time high (ATH) in the next 5-14 days because of the stimulus bill.

I don’t care about convincing anyone; I just want a public record of what I believe. That way:

  1. If I’m wrong, I have to go back and address it. I can figure out why I’m wrong + improve.
  2. If I’m correct, there’s a public record of it.
  3. This promotes a culture of accountability. (not being Jim Cramer, making predictions he never verifies)


This weekend, the 1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill was passed in the Senate. It seems likely that the House will vote it in as well.

A summary of the changes:

Unemployment benefits The package extends the existing $300 weekly unemployment benefit through Sept. 6, as well as provide a tax break on $10,000 in unemployment benefits.

Stimulus checks $1,400 stimulus check sent to anyone earning $75,000 per year or less.

Minimum wage A minimum wage increase to $15 was proposed, but didn’t pass.

Child tax credit Most Americans receive $3,600 a year for each child under 6. $3,000 a year for children 6 to 17. This lasts for a year.

Aid to state and local governments Designation of $350 billion for states, cities, tribal governments and U.S. territories.

Pandemic response Tens of billions of dollars will fund coronavirus testing and contact tracing.

Because the money for this bill is printed, it will devalue USD. Bitcoin is a common store of value (alongside gold) that USD holders will move cash to:

Crucially, we are at a tipping point for Bitcoin’s adoption by mainstream financial services:

  1. Tesla (world’s most valuable carmaker, led by world’s richest person) bought 1.5B worth of Bitcoin.
  2. In Nigeria, Bitcoin is trading at a 46% premium.
  3. JPMorgan now recommends private wealth clients to own Bitcoin.

Institutional investors are more likely to have planned responses to currency devaluation. Because of that, I think large, institutional-level buying will start this Monday 3/8/2021.