This past week, starting Monday, Jake Bailey and I conducted a one-word survey:
How much Bitcoin will you buy with your stimulus check this week?
Our goal was to get 2,000 surveys completed (“completes”) before Wednesday when the stimulus payments hit. This would give us a statistically-significant sample of US citizens.
By Wednesday morning, we had 200 completes. Not enough, but went ahead and posted the results anyway in a few tweets:
Jake Bailey (no twitter) and I are running a survey to see how much Bitcoin people will buy with their stimulus checks.— Hunter (@huntermmonk) March 17, 2021
We have 340/2000 completes done. Here are the results so far: (thread)
Of the people who qualify, 6.41% will buy BTC. pic.twitter.com/BXzqDoe0di— Hunter (@huntermmonk) March 17, 2021
Leaving us with an estimated 175,915,200 people receiving the stimulus. (rough numbers)— Hunter (@huntermmonk) March 17, 2021
If we assume that in each of the buckets, the person buys the middle amount (if they answer $101-$250, on average they buy $175.5), we get the amounts: pic.twitter.com/gLLzJe8Cut
That comes to a total of $6,332,947,200 of BTC people plan to buy with their stimulus money.— Hunter (@huntermmonk) March 17, 2021
For comparison, according to https://t.co/vlVdmMjeAy, daily volume for the past 24 hours was $6,549,258,827 (about the same). pic.twitter.com/Ve1taNNrry
Even though the survey wasn’t completed, it seemed pretty positive, so we went ahead with the trade anyway.
Wednesday morning we made the purchase. Added some buying and selling through the day.
Price immediately moved.
Arrow indicates when the tweets were sent.
We ended with a 0.79 BTC profit ($45,302).
It’s unclear if the price change was related to stimulus or not. It could’ve been many other factors. Most notably, 24 hour volume was pretty normal which did not fit with our thesis.
I missed taking a screenshot here, but 24 hour volume was in the 6-8 billion range according to bitcointradevolume.
Also, as of writing, we now have 1,805 of the 2,000 completes.
People have received their check during the survey which skews the results. Nevertheless, here are the current results:
Total intent to purchase ends up being pretty much the same; definitely within the error from the beginning of the survey. ($500M more than before)