Monday

This past week, starting Monday, Jake Bailey and I conducted a one-word survey:

How much Bitcoin will you buy with your stimulus check this week?

Our goal was to get 2,000 surveys completed (“completes”) before Wednesday when the stimulus payments hit. This would give us a statistically-significant sample of US citizens.

Wednesday

By Wednesday morning, we had 200 completes. Not enough, but went ahead and posted the results anyway in a few tweets:

Trade Result

Even though the survey wasn’t completed, it seemed pretty positive, so we went ahead with the trade anyway.

Wednesday morning we made the purchase. Added some buying and selling through the day.

trades

Price immediately moved.

price Arrow indicates when the tweets were sent.

We ended with a 0.79 BTC profit ($45,302).

profit

Post-mortem

It’s unclear if the price change was related to stimulus or not. It could’ve been many other factors. Most notably, 24 hour volume was pretty normal which did not fit with our thesis.

I missed taking a screenshot here, but 24 hour volume was in the 6-8 billion range according to bitcointradevolume.

Also, as of writing, we now have 1,805 of the 2,000 completes.

People have received their check during the survey which skews the results. Nevertheless, here are the current results:

Survey results as of 3/21

Total intent to purchase ends up being pretty much the same; definitely within the error from the beginning of the survey. ($500M more than before)

Survey results as of 3/21