This past week, starting Monday, Jake Bailey and I conducted a one-word survey:

How much Bitcoin will you buy with your stimulus check this week?

Our goal was to get 2,000 surveys completed (“completes”) before Wednesday when the stimulus payments hit. This would give us a statistically-significant sample of US citizens.


By Wednesday morning, we had 200 completes. Not enough, but went ahead and posted the results anyway in a few tweets:

Trade Result

Even though the survey wasn’t completed, it seemed pretty positive, so we went ahead with the trade anyway.

Wednesday morning we made the purchase. Added some buying and selling through the day.


Price immediately moved.

price Arrow indicates when the tweets were sent.

We ended with a 0.79 BTC profit ($45,302).



It’s unclear if the price change was related to stimulus or not. Although it was profitable, there were a few problems with our execution.

  1. We started with only ~200 completes. I believe that means we had a 6.9% error rate.
  2. Our data was self-reported.
  3. We used Google Surveys, which will skew towards higher income individuals with internet access. That may or may not be salient given all Bitcoin purchasers are internet users.

And then, after execution, we saw that 24 hour volume was pretty normal which did not fit with our thesis. We expected that the influx of money would significantly increase volume.

I missed taking a screenshot here, but 24 hour volume was in the 6-8 billion range according to bitcointradevolume.

Also, as of writing, we now have 1,805 of the 2,000 completes.

People have received their check during the survey which skews the results. Nevertheless, here are the current results:

Survey results as of 3/21

Total intent to purchase ends up being pretty much the same; definitely within the error from the beginning of the survey. ($500M more than before)

Survey results as of 3/21